Just last week, cartwheels were turned, champagne glasses raised and, of course, many donation checks were written as Pac-10 coaches announced their 2010 football recruiting haul on National Signing Day.
Signing Day is about the numbers and positions and in-state players who have agreed to play football at State U. But the headline material is the 5-star recruits who drive all the internet traffic to recruiting web sites, the blue-chippers who cannot miss and the players everyone wants.
As I wrote shortly after signing day, there is some credibility to the star ratings of recruits. Year in and year out, players who were marquee recruits dominate Pac-10 all-league teams. And teams that win most of the games dominate all-league teams.
But it is instructive, even necessary, to revisit these cream of the crop lists a few years after the fact in order to measure whether the hype was worthy.
So we look at the best of the best from 2008. In this case, we’ll take the ESPNU 150, players who were rated as the top 150 football recruits two years ago.
Two years is enough time to get an overview of a college player. They’ve had time to acclimate to college life, and have spent two full seasons in the program. Some have played two years, others one with a redshirt season.
Yes, they may have as many as three seasons of eligibility remaining, but these were the best of the best. Two years in, we should be able to see some signs of greatness.
Of the Class of 2008 from ESPNU 150, 17 signed with a Pac-10 school. The overall consensus?
Blown away I am not.
The top-rated player to end up at a Pac-10 school, No. 15 Brice Butler, has hardly set the world afire as a receiver at Southern California. He took a redshirt season in 2008, then became the backup split end/flanker on a Trojans’ team that desperately needed a complement to Damian Williams last season.
The best of that Pac-10 class is easily Stanford quarterback Andrew Luck, No. 61 on the list. Luck became a full-time starter in 2009, and he was darn close to all-Pac 10 quality. Whatever kudos Luck was given on Signing Day weren’t enough. Luck has special written all over his jersey.
But there were plenty of skill player busts in this group, too. No. 46, running back Aundre Dean, lasted all of a season at UCLA before deciding to transfer to Texas Christian. No. 98, athlete Chris Harper, was given looks at a couple positions at Oregon, but it wasn’t enough as he decided to transfer to Kansas State. Another athlete, No. 120 Gerell Robinson of Arizona State, has 29 receptions and 287 receiving yards in two seasons for the Sun Devils.
Another skill guy, No. 59 D. J. Shoemate of USC, might become a serviceable player, though on Signing Day, serviceable is hardly what you’re thinking. Shoemate, recruited as an athlete, started three games at fullback in 2009.
There were two tight ends among the 150, No. 20 Blake Ayles of USC and No. 62 Kavario Middleton of Washington. It’s a little unfair to rate tight ends two years into a college career, because that’s a position where maturity matters. Ayles and Middleton could go either way; Middleton caught 26 passes for 257 yards and three touchdowns as a sophomore, while Ayles toiled behind senior star Anthony McCoy.
Four of the 150s are Pac-10 linemen, all signed, you guessed it, at USC. One is finished (No. 113 Matt Meyer) because of recurring foot problems, and two scarcely played as redshirt freshmen in No. 67 Khaled Holmes and No. 73 Matt Kalil. But the lowest rated of the group, No. 127 Tyron Smith, started 13 games in 2009 at right tackle for the Trojans. Call that mixed, with promise.
Four of the Pac-10 elites from 2008 play defense. Feast or famine. On the good end, No. 137, safety Tony Dye of UCLA, is a full-time starter who was fourth in tackles for the Bruins in 2009, while No. 24, cornerback T.J. Bryant of USC, played in nickel situations last season. No. 96, linebacker Uona Kaveinga of USC, has barely played in two years for the Trojans.
The bust? No. 101 E.J. Woods, a safety for UCLA, qualifies big time. He last one season with the Bruins, was hit with six counts of battery and sexual battery in March of 2009, then transferred to Santa Monica College.
So there’s the 17. Before they’re done, one could win a Heisman (Luck), three or four could become all league, and at least a half dozen won’t have any impact on their college team.
It’s up to you as to whether that’s worth celebrating or not.
Nick Daschel covers the Pac-10 for Buster Sports, and can be reached at ndaschel@bustersports.com You can also follow Nick on Twitter
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