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Forty-six days from now, the Pac-10 will unveil its all-league team, which will include the Offensive Player of the Year. A lot can happen between now and Dec. 7, and right at the top of the list is injuries.

If they were selecting today, however, would anyone be surprised if Washington’s Jake Locker was the Pac-10’s Offensive Player of the Year? Some think he’ll be first quarterback taken in next spring’s NFL draft. Locker is the driving force behind the Huskies’ resurgence in 2009, even more so than first-year coach Steve Sarkisian.

But there’s no getting around that the Pac-10’s top honors usually go to players with outrageous statistics who play for prolific winners. Locker’s numbers at this stage hardly jump off the page; at his current pace, he’ll throw for about 2,900 yards with 19 touchdown passes and 10 picks. Locker’s current quarterback rating is 127.54, which ranks No. 65 in the country.

As for playing for a prolific winner, Washington is not. The Huskies are 3-4, and only an extreme pollyanna would project something better than a 6-6 record this regular season.

Locker would have to buck some serious trends to win the award. Yet, at this stage, who is playing better and means more to his team than the Husky junior? You could make a case for running backs Jacquizz Rodgers of Oregon State or Toby Gerhart of Stanford. At quarterback, USC’s Matt Barkley or Oregon State’s Sean Canfield could enter the discussion.

None are decidedly better than Locker, though. To this point, none have played better.

You wonder, though, when history might get in the way for Locker.

Look at the list of Pac-10 Offensive Player of the Year winners (see chart below) since the Pac-10 separated the honor into an offensive and defensive award in 1982. You see a lot of winners who played for league champions; 22 of the 30 winners played for a first or second-place team. Since 1994, only once did the Offensive POY play for a team that didn’t finish in the top two, and he was Oregon’s Dennis Dixon in 2007. Had Dixon not suffered a season-ending injury in November, he likely would have won the Heisman Trophy.

Of the 30 winners, only five played on a team that won less than eight games. Each time, it was someone exceptional during a year lacking star power. Washington’s Napoleon Kaufman was rewarded in 1994 for three consecutive 1,000-yard seasons. Washington State’s Steve Broussard ran for 1,237 yards and led the Pac-10 in scoring in 1989. The Cougars’ Rueben Mayes won in 1984 and 1985, but he was something special; a 357-yard game tends to resonate. John Elway, well, was John Elway.

Look at the quarterbacks who won Offensive Player of the Year honors this decade. Six of the seven – Dixon the exception – led their team to a BCS bowl game. Locker will not, at least not in 2009. Of the seven, only one has a lower quarterback rating than Locker; ironically, it’s Tuiasosopo, who plays a lot like Locker.

It’ll be interesting to see when the coaches vote this season whether they go for the Pac-10’s best player, or the best player on the best team. This year, it’s unlikely to be both.

Nick Daschel covers the Pacific-10 Conference for Buster Sports, and can be reached at ndaschel@bustersports.com

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