Because of their clear path to the Rose Bowl, it is assumed that Oregon and Arizona are the Pac-10 frontrunners. Neither team depends on another team to open the door to Pasadena. Just win out, and they’re in.
But is sweeping the remaining games the most likely outcome? We’ll take a crack at playing the percentages here, using Buster Math 101:
Oregon
Nov. 21 at Arizona: The Ducks are a 6-point favorite for this game, and I happen to think that’s about right. Either team could win, but Oregon is a little more balanced and more explosiveness to its offense. Chance of winning: 60 percent
Dec. 3 Oregon State: Even though it’s the Civil War – you know, where they throw out the records – it’s hard to believe the Ducks won’t be at least a 10-point favorite. Oregon has won its four Pac-10 home games by margins of 39, 46, 27 and 23 points.
No team had a harder time stopping the Ducks’ offense a year ago than Oregon State. You’d have to think the Beavers will be better this time around, but it probably won’t be enough in the caustic atmosphere that is Autzen. Chance of winning: 80 percent
Odds this happens: .6 x .8 = 48 percent
There is also this scenario: Oregon loses to Arizona (40 percent), beats OSU (80 percent), Stanford loses to Cal (25 percent) and Arizona losing to either Arizona State or USC (75 percent). Odds this happens: .4 x .8 x .25 x .75 = .06
Oregon’s Rose Bowl odds: 54 percent
Oregon State
Nov. 21 at Washington State: Nothing short of a team-wide bout of food poisoning keeps the Beavers from winning this game. The Cougars are that inept. Chance of winning: 100 percent.
Dec. 3 at Oregon: As described above, the Beavers are good enough to have a fighting chance against the Ducks in Autzen, but after last year, you’d have to think it’s an uphill battle. Chance of winning: 20 percent
OSU’s Rose Bowl odds: 1.0 x .2 = 20 percent
Stanford
Nov. 21 California: Rock USC on the road, and you get noticed. Better yet if it comes the week after bludgeoning Oregon. The Bears have owned this series of late, but Stanford has never been this good. Chance of winning: 80 percent
The Cardinal also need: Arizona beats Oregon (40 percent), Oregon beats OSU (80 percent), Arizona loses to either ASU or USC (75 percent).
Stanford’s Rose Bowl odds: .8 x .4 x .8 x .75 = 19 percent
Arizona
Nov. 21 Oregon: The last time a sophomore quarterback outside of USC led a Pac-10 team to the Rose Bowl? Anyone? Anyone? Bueller? Big games in November are tough to win without a seasoned quarterback. Chance of winning: 40 percent
Nov. 28 at Arizona State: Win or lose against Oregon, the Wildcats are sure to be favored. But Arizona hasn’t had a lot of success in its rivalry game of late, winning only two of the past seven, and losing its last three in Tempe. Chance of winning: 50 percent
Dec. 5 at USC: This one is hard to tab, because USC may be in a mail-it-in state of mind if it somehow loses to UCLA. But we’ll assume the Trojans will get up for the Bruins and win. Chance of winning: 20 percent
Arizona’s Rose Bowl odds: .4 x .5 x .2 = 4 percent
Something incredibly wacky happens: 3 percent (fixed).
Nick Daschel covers the Pacific-10 Conference for Buster Sports, and can be reached at ndaschel@bustersports.com
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Comments
Secondly, OSU winning out doesn't guarantee a RB berth. If UA wins out (admittedly an unlikely proposition), the outcome of the Civil War doesn't matter since UA wins the tie-breaker over OSU. Thus, their odds are slightly less than 20%.